The most "cold" winter is near the end
Last 2012, the industry generally reflect the global photovoltaic industry is the "cold" of the year: European and American "double reverse", the domestic market is limited, started manufacturing overcapacity serious and frequent corporate debt crisis, the PV market almost "dying".
But near the end of the year, the industry is "calm" in the slightest dawn: China government proposed PV bailout deal, Japan, Britain and other overseas emerging markets a new round of grab fashions, Warren Buffett announced to spend billions to third investment in photovoltaic power plant project. A series of movements so many people in the industry have expected the photovoltaic industry the worst may be nearing completion.
In fact, the recent changes in the PV market has begun to confirm this statement. Good domestic policies to promote domestic enterprises has been the rise of a power plant construction boom, with monocrystalline silicon materials and photovoltaic silicon wafer as the representative of the product prices across the board for several weeks to usher in a rebound, stocks and shares in the photovoltaic sector stocks appeared collective rise since this year.
It is worth noting that, has always been regarded as the last out of the industry, winter, the manufacturing industry, recently also in the process of accelerating the start to the production process. According to Chinese Securities News reporter, on the one hand, some small and medium enterprises backward production capacity after last year's shutdown, which is gradually withdraw from the market; on the other hand, due to the demand of domestic market is steadily expanding, the supply gradually compressed, the domestic first-line enterprises currently open work rate of at least 80%, a full production enterprise and the emergence of urgent and shortage of labor.
Volume growth in orders greatly enhance the confidence of some manufacturers. According to the China Securities Journal reporter learned that the Taiwan area battery manufacturers have plans to upgrade their product prices 5% to 10%, they are expected in 2013 1 to February, the product will begin to clear orders.

Stage market spawned investment opportunities
Guoxin Securities analyst believes that this year the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry inefficient production of small and medium-sized enterprises will accelerate the industry being squeezed, the supply side will be continued to improve, and the policy activation effect needs to bring up the industry as a whole bottoming foundation has formed.
Further analysis is that, due to the early stage of photovoltaic industry is too heavy, the overall market is expected this year, the overall market or not too realistic, but the stage of the market can still lead to a series of investment opportunities.
Analysts said the above, in the first quarter of this year, the industry will be in the traditional off-season, the European single and Japan market demand driven inventory decline, while small and medium enterprises began to gradually withdraw. Into the two quarter, the golden sun project completed in June 30th before the machine needs to install 2.83GW, will bring the policy before the expiration of a period of sharp increase in demand.
And specific to the second half of this year, the photovoltaic industry if it continues to improve the need to rely on the "double reverse" final results. But this point is still uncertain.
In the stage of the market, the industry chain analysis, construction of the downstream photovoltaic power plant will undoubtedly Qingjushulu into the fast lane. JA solar experts Yun Chuan told reporters, the National Energy Bureau has clearly this year's new PV installed capacity will reach 10 million kilowatts. If the policy on the grid and electricity subsidies to further refine the clear, will promote the development of terminal photovoltaic power plants, especially distributed power plants into the blowout period.
And specific to the upstream manufacturing sector, to the process of production capacity will lead to the emergence of competition in the industry pattern of differentiation. With the advantages of enterprise technology and mode will gain new market order, and gradually accelerate the enterprise turnaround. Yingli Green Energy recently disclosed, the company orders accumulated in 2012 has reached 2.2GW, ranking first in the world, the orders of domestic golden sun project reached nearly 300 megawatts. These orders will be expected to be released this year for the actual shipments.
In addition, with the rapid advance of distributed photovoltaic power generation, more suitable for the roof power plant system used in silicon solar cells will benefit from. A good recent good performance such as domestic Lungi shares and kamudanke solar silicon manufacturers has indicated this market segment.

A full recovery remains to be compacted Foundation
Although this year the PV bottomed increasingly uncertain situation, but many industry insiders pointed out that the year 2013, the photovoltaic industry is still in the depth adjustment period, to the production capacity of the industry integration and double parallel process will appear, which will lay a solid foundation for the industry overall pick up next year.
Dongxing securities analysts believe that in 2013 the global PV module shipments will reach 30GW, an increase of 8%. Despite the global PV market demand will continue to grow steadily, but the global PV production capacity has exceeded 50GW, still significantly exceeded the overall market demand. This means that unless the capacity to process into the phenomenon, still can not digest excess capacity or overnight.
In addition, although the mass start of the domestic market has been expected for PV fully warmed up the life-saving straw, but over reliance on the photovoltaic industry policy support to achieve leap again, still need detailed early positive policies in place.
Solarbuzz analyst Han Qiming had to Chinese PV Securities newspaper reporter said that at present need clear rules that distributed photovoltaic electricity subsidies in the end how much is, the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the direct impact of distributed generation project development. In addition, the construction of power plants in the west, although it is very hot, but the power plant operations due to the Ministry of Finance renewable energy electricity price subsidies and subsidies are not a financial. If the Ministry of finance does not further clarify the future financial funds to support efforts, it may inhibit downstream power plant operator's revenue, and then transfer to the upstream power station development until the equipment supplier's orders.
Overall, this year the PV market in a series of positive factors, driven by a rebound gradually clear, the lack of market stage and industry chain investment opportunities alternately, but the industry fully warmed up may be postponed to 2014.